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If you don't buy a house this year, can't you afford it or just pick it five years later? Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan share the same view

House is an item that people often mention. For a house, it has not only the attribute of residence, but also the attribute of investment. According to the data, in 2000, China's average house price was only about 2000 yuan, while by 2020, China's average house price has reached 9860 yuan. In just 20 years, the average house price has increased by about four times. It is precisely for this reason that people have bought houses and invested.

Because cash is depreciating and house prices are rising, this leads people to buy a house, which can not only preserve their family wealth, but also increase their family wealth with the continuous rise of house prices. In this regard, many people choose to buy a house for investment. According to the data given by the central bank, in 2020, the housing ownership rate of urban residents in China has reached 96%. It can be said that most urban residents have their own houses. Moreover, the proportion of families with two suites accounted for 31.0, and the proportion of families with three suites and above accounted for 10.5%. From this, we can see that many families have chosen to buy houses for investment, so that families have two suites or even multiple suites.

今年不买房,5年后是买不起还是随便挑?王健林和马光远观点一致

But for now, house prices have also been very high, making it very difficult for people to buy a house. Why do you say that? We can see from the ratio of house price to income. According to the data, in 2020, China's average house price income ratio has reached 9.2, which can be said to be very high. You know, for the average house price income ratio, it is the ratio of the average annual income of the family to the average house price. This means that it takes 9.2 years for an average income family to buy a house with full payment and an average house price without any expenses. You know, this situation does not exist. Every family will have expenses, which makes it very difficult for people to buy a house with all the money.

Even buying a house with a down payment is not easy. For those big cities, the house price has reached tens of thousands of yuan / square meter, and even many small cities have broken through the "10000 yuan mark", making it very difficult for buyers to buy a house. Not only the down payment is relatively high, but also the monthly mortgage is a large expenditure. For people, the down payment is just the beginning, and the most important thing is the 30-year mortgage. If you lose your job in the future, it will be equivalent to cutting off your income. In this case, you have no spare power to repay the mortgage at all.

For this point, it is undoubtedly the most hesitant problem when people buy a house. Because the monthly mortgage is a big expense, coupled with the daily expenses of each month, there won't be much savings left in their hands. Under such circumstances, of course, people do not dare to buy a house easily. Instead, they should think again and again and consider whether they want to buy a house now. For now, many families are in a wait-and-see state and have not bought a house for the time being, but for these families, they want to wait until house prices fall to a low point. If you want to know how the house price will be in the future, then judge when to buy a house. In this regard, if you don't buy a house this year, can't you afford it or just pick it five years later? We can take a look at the views of Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan.

今年不买房,5年后是买不起还是随便挑?王健林和马光远观点一致

In an interview with Wang Jianlin in 2013, an audience asked Wang Jianlin about the trend of house prices in the next decade. In this regard, Wang Jianlin also returned to this question. Said that in the next decade, the house prices in the first and second tier cities will continue to rise, while the house prices in the third and fourth tier cities will not have much room to rise. This is based on the development direction of China's urbanization.

In fact, in 2015, house prices in third and fourth tier cities began to rise. At that time, many people felt that Wang Jianlin's view of the property market was a wrong judgment. But in fact, for these third and fourth tier cities, the main reason for the rise in house prices is the promotion of monetized shed reform, coupled with purchase restrictions in first and second tier cities, which makes those speculators pour into small cities to buy houses and increase the demand for house purchase. In the case of a large number of funds flowing into the real estate industry, house prices in small cities are also rising rapidly.

今年不买房,5年后是买不起还是随便挑?王健林和马光远观点一致

However, with the continuous tightening of regulatory policies in recent years, these speculators have left the third and fourth tier cities. Moreover, for this year, China has begun to comprehensively promote the old reform policy, which has brought the shed reform policy to an end. In this regard, house prices in third and fourth tier cities have lost support, and house prices are slowly falling. Because for some third and fourth tier cities, house prices are falsely high, and their own economic strength and population demand are not enough to support such high house prices. It is normal to start falling now.

Moreover, in 2020, China's urbanization rate has reached 60.6%, which can be said to have entered the second half. In this regard, the development direction of urbanization has changed from rural population gradually flowing into small cities to small urban population gradually flowing into big cities. In this regard, the population of these third and fourth tier cities will gradually lose. For the real estate industry, the long-term development depends on the population. If the population continues to drain, it means that the demand for house purchase continues to decrease. In this regard, with the continuous loss of population in third and fourth tier cities, house prices will certainly not have much room to rise.

Ma Guangyuan once said that there will be only three 20% of the property market in the future, that is, 20% of cities, 20% of real estate enterprises and 20% of real estate. Only these three 20% will have investment value, and the remaining houses will lose their investment attributes. In this regard, we can see that for the future property market, it is not the general rise in house prices, but divided into cities and houses. In general, the famous economist Ma Guangyuan also gave his views on the property market. We can see from the three 20% that only a small number of houses in the future property market have investment attributes.

今年不买房,5年后是买不起还是随便挑?王健林和马光远观点一致

In this regard, this is similar to Wang Jianlin's view. For the future, with the continuous inflow of population and the increasing demand for house purchase in the first and second tier cities, there will be a lot of room for house price appreciation, which may be more affordable in five years. For the third and fourth tier cities, with the continuous loss of population and the gradual loss of support for house prices, the houses will gradually return to the residential attribute, so that the houses in the third and fourth tier cities may face the situation of random selection in the future.

What do you think of this?